After the Delhi election results, N.Ram, former Editor-in-Chief of The Hindu and chairman of Kasturi and Sons, publishers of The Hindu, tweeted – Anti-incumbency has set in — indisputably — for the Modi government; it’s only that we don’t know its extent yet. Some TV panellists and opposition parties also spoke in similar lines.
I disagree that tweet and the similar comments.
BJP government in Delhi under the leadership of Narendra Modi started their journey in right direction. Ending policy paralysis; starting Jan Dhan, Make In India, Swachch Bharat, Beti Padhao Beti Bachao; kick starting new plans for railways and inland waterways; and reviving external relations with countries like US, Japan, Australia, Bhutan, Srilanka, Nepal and other activities take time to yield results. Our media and intellectuals are impatient, but our people wait for five full years and evaluates a government. If the commitments shown by Modi in the first nine months continue for five years, he will get another term as well. The inherent hatred toward BJP/Modi may be a reason to talk of anti-incumbency in 9 months.
I can understand a gynaecologist saying deliver in nine months or you are in trouble; but, not from political analysts/intellectuals. So, let us analyze Delhi elections keeping Central government aside.
I agree that there is a dissent among the Delhiites toward BJP or even Modi-Shah duo. Dissent is because the way they handled Delhi BJP. I agree to other comments like delaying elections and candidates, factions in Delhi BJP, anointment of Kiran Bedi are also the reasons. As these points were dealt in detail by others, I am not getting in to that.
Let us rewind our memory toward the recent Lok Sabha election. In the assembly elections that are held in May 2014, the BJP leaders said that the country was swept my Modi wave and that was the reason for BJP to bag 282 seats. But, they failed to notice or accept that there were few states are not affected by Modi wave. They are – West Bengal, Orissa, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu.
In Tamil Nadu, ADMK won 37 seats out of 40 seats; in West Bengal, TMC won 34 seats out of 42 seats; in Orissa, BJD won 20 seats out of 21 seats; and in Telangana, TRS won 11 out of 17 seats. In these states, even if Modi would have contested, the chances are very less for him to win.
The reason for the seats won by those parties in Lok Sabha elections and the reason for AAP’s win in the state election is same. If a state has a strong/popular leader who heads a party that has good organizational strength, wave that is made by/for a person outside their state cannot affect them.
May be in states like Haryana or Jharkhand, where the current ruling party has inefficient/corrupt leader and there is no strong opposition leader in any party or opposition votes are split, Modi and Amit Shah can help BJP to get in to power without a strong local leader. Whereas, in states like Tamil Nadu or West Bengal, it is a tough task for Modi-Shah to win without a strong local face.
So, the Delhi election results confirm an arrival of yet another strong state-level party with an acceptable face and good organizational strength. Only their action can decide whether it will grow as national party.
When Congress was ruling the entire country, in 1967, DMK formed the first non-Congress government in the country. No media or even DMK leaders never claimed that a party alternative to Congress had arrived. But, for AAP starting from Arvind Kejriwal to every media, the signal has been given that an alternative to BJP (esp. Modi) has arrived.
This premature alternative-to-Modi verdict/signalling from media only shows the inherent hatred toward BJP/Modi. However, a political party should accept that people are becoming restless and ruthless. They are fed up with the corruption and snail paced development. Voters just say Perform or Perish…Hope the parties understand and perform.
PS: Some newspapers like Economic Times and Mint had published apolitical analysis on victory of AAP and the reason for their volunteer base. I agree to them as well.
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